TFK Explains: El Niño

El Niño has arrived, and experts predict it might be the strongest in history. Some are calling it a Super El Niño. TIME’s Simmone Shah explains.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a huge natural weather pattern that occurs, on average, every two to seven years. It starts in the Pacific Ocean and affects the weather all over the world.

The pattern is caused by shifting winds called trade winds. Usually, they push warm water to the western side of the Pacific, near Indonesia and Australia. At the same time, cold water rises from the deep ocean to take its place on the eastern side, near South America.

During an El Niño year, the opposite happens. Trade winds slow down, or even blow in reverse. Warm water gathers on the eastern side of the ocean. This changes weather in many different places. The effects typically last nine to 12 months, but can sometimes last longer.

When was the most recent El Niño event?

The effects of the last El Niño event were felt from June 2023 to May 2024.

What weather will this El Niño bring?

In the U.S., El Niño often brings a warmer-than-usual winter to the northern states. It might also bring more rain and snow to southern states. El Niño also increases risk of severe weather, such as tornadoes. Recent forecasts predict that the system will deliver drought conditions to Southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and the northern parts of South America.

This year’s El Niño began forming in the early summer and is expected to last into 2027.

What makes this a Super El Niño?

Ocean temperature reports show that this El Niño is strengthening very quickly. People will have to wait and see the event’s effects, but experts say these could be stronger than usual. “This El Niño could be a record-setting event,” says Erin Coughlan de Perez, associate professor of climate science at Tufts University, in Massachusetts.

How can families prepare?

Adults can sign up for emergency alerts and pay attention to local forecasts. Cities can also prepare in advance. For example, in the southern U.S., leaders might set up warming centers to prepare for cold weather.

Stop and Think!

WHY did the author write this story in a question-and-answer format? How might this help a reader understand the information?